Por Cris Almeida, Valor Investe � Rio
28/12/2023 18h00 Atualizado 28/12/2023
E aqui chegamos: �ltimo preg�o do ano,?? pr�via da infla��o para digerir em sporting sofifa 2024 e n�meros no azul. Depois de quatro altas seguidas, a bolsa brasileira?? realizou os lucros e passou o dia em sporting sofifa queda.
O Ibovespa terminou 2023 com forte avan�o, impulsionado pelo in�cio do?? ciclo de corte de juros no Brasil e pela perspectiva de relaxamento monet�rio nos Estados Unidos no ano que vem.
No?? �ltimo dia de negocia��o de 2023, o �ndice acumulava alta anual de 22,17%. No dia, a queda foi t�mida, de?? 0,01%, aos 134.185 pontos;O d�lar encerrou a �ltima sess�o da bolsa brasileira no ano em sporting sofifa queda de 8,06% contra?? o real no acumulado de 2023, a R$ 4,8525.
Essa � a maior desvaloriza��o da moeda americana desde 2023, ano de?? impeachment da ex-presidente Dilma Rousseff (PT). Naquele ano, o d�lar depreciou 18% em sporting sofifa rela��o � moeda brasileira. No dia,?? a moeda registrou leve alta de 0,41%, enquanto na semana teve queda de 0,17% e, no m�s, caiu 1,28%.
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Hoje, dois indicadores estiveram no radar dos investidores: o IPCA-15, considerado a pr�via da infla��o, e o IGP-M. Ambos?? ajudam a "testar" o bom humor dos investidores.
Afinal, a trajet�ria da infla��o indica se o investidor deve esperar ou n�o?? uma acelera��o nos cortes da Selic.
No caso do IPCA-15, a alta foi de 0,40% em sporting sofifa dezembro ante novembro. O?? resultado ficou (bem) acima da mediana das expectativas, j� que a proje��o mediana de 31 institui��es financeiras e consultorias ouvidas?? pelo Valor Data apontava para uma alta de 0,26%.
Mas a leitura do n�mero n�o � t�o pessimista quanto parece, j�?? que o indicador encerra o ano com alta de 4,72%. A meta de infla��o definida pelo Conselho Monet�rio Nacional (CMN)?? para 2023 foi de 3,25%, com uma toler�ncia de 1,5 ponto percentual para cima ou para baixo, isso significa que?? o limite tolerado para a infla��o em sporting sofifa 2023 � de 4,75%.
De acordo com o analista da �rama, Gilvan Bueno,?? o resultado do IPCA-15 pode indicar que a infla��o est� sob controle. Uma vez controlada, a Selic ter� espa�o para?? continuar em sporting sofifa trajet�ria de queda. Em agosto deste ano, o Banco Central iniciou o ciclo de queda da taxa?? b�sica de juros e, desde ent�o, vem cortando os juros em sporting sofifa 0,5 pontos percentual.
Agora, o mercado espera uma acelera��o?? nesses cortes. Embora mantenha um discurso mais conservador, de "esperar para ver", o Banco Central vem mostrando uma disposi��o (ainda?? que discreta) para que isso aconte�a. Ontem, por exemplo, o presidente do BC, Roberto Campos Neto, afirmou que gostaria de?? entregar os juros "no patamar mais baixo poss�vel" em sporting sofifa 2024.
No caso do �ndice Geral de Pre�os � Mercado (IGP-M)?? de dezembro, a alta foi de 0,74% no m�s, segundo o Instituto Brasileiro de Economia da Funda��o Getulio Vargas (Ibre-FGV).?? O indicador, conhecido como "infla��o do aluguel", surpreendeu negativamente ao subir mais do que o esperado.
No ano, por�m, o indicador?? acumula queda de 3,18%.
A mediana das proje��es das consultorias e institui��es financeiras ouvidas pelo Valor Data apontava para uma alta?? de 0,65% em sporting sofifa dezembro. J� o intervalo das previs�es era de 0,52% a 0,84%.
Ao vir acima do esperado, o?? indicador acende um alerta nos investidores de que a infla��o pode n�o estar t�o controlada assim. E a alta dos?? pre�os n�o impacta apenas o consumidor na hora de fazer suas compras, mas tamb�m os investimentos.
Isso porque o momento atual?? � de queda da Selic, a taxa b�sica de juros. A trajet�ria de cortes se iniciou em sporting sofifa agosto deste?? ano ap�s o Banco Central concluir que o cen�rio era positivo para isso (ou seja, com infla��o dentro do controle).?? Desde ent�o, as quedas t�m sido de 0,5 ponto percentual.
Para que haja um aumento na magnitude dos cortes (algo bem?? esperado pelo mercado), � preciso que o cen�rio esteja favor�vel para isso.
O Banco Central at� vem mostrando uma disposi��o para?? continuar cortando os juros (e at� mesmo, quem sabe, acelerar esse ritmo). Ontem, por exemplo, o presidente do BC, Roberto?? Campos Neto, afirmou que gostaria de entregar os juros "no patamar mais baixo poss�vel" em sporting sofifa 2024. No entanto, caso?? a infla��o d� sinais de descontrole, um sinal de alerta � aceso.
�ndice anda de lado ap�s atingir pontua��o m�xima esta?? semana. Mercado avalia fala do ministro da Fazenda Fernando Haddad e digere dados de infla��o divulgados esta manh�
Barril do WTI,?? a refer�ncia americana, ficou cotado a US$ 71,77 e do Brent, a refer�ncia global, a US$ 77,15
Saldo do ano: No?? �ltimo preg�o do ano, a bolsa brasileira se despede de 2023 em sporting sofifa clima de otimismo, apesar dos dois indicadores?? pressionando a sess�o. O impulso come�ou em sporting sofifa agosto, junto com o in�cio do ciclo de corte de juros no?? Brasil e pela perspectiva de relaxamento monet�rio nos Estados Unidos no ano que vem
Diminui��o de incertezas econ�micas e aumento das?? exporta��es foram fatores que impulsionaram a moeda dom�stica contra a americana
Francisco Macena afirmou que expectativa � que pa�s ter� grande?? crescimento econ�mico no pr�ximo ano com queda dos juros e aumento do investimento p�blico
Dados de novembro apontam desacelera��o, mas emprego?? deve se manter resiliente em sporting sofifa 2024
Com o dado de novembro, o pa�s acumula abertura l�quida de 1.914.467 vagas de?? trabalho com carteira assinada em sporting sofifa 2023.
As Meninas - Nath�lia Larghi e Naiara Bert�o - comentam experi�ncias pessoais e?? t�cnicas conhecidas para tirar promessas do papel neste epis�dio do 'Pod Isso, Meninas?'
Al�m da queda do petr�leo, pouca liquidez do?? fim de ano tamb�m ajudou a apagar os recentes ganhos dos �ndices da regi�o
Medida deve come�ar a valer j� em?? sporting sofifa 1 de janeiro de 2024
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